The Flight Path of Fortune: Understanding Probability in Plane Crash Games

Slots, scratch cards and bingo have always been go-to games for casual gamblers. They are easy to figure out, and they can potentially lead to massive payouts. However, one thing gamblers didn’t like in these games is the complete lack of player agency. Meaning there is almost nothing you can do to affect the outcome.

Luckily, there is a new casual-friendly game type that addresses these concerns. These are often called crash games and they became popular in crypto casinos. Now they are available in many online casinos in Australia. You can look for operators that have Jet-X crash game or similar titles in their lobby if you wish to give them a shot. The goal of the article is to explain how these new games work, and why they are a perfect fit for casual gamblers.

What is Crash Gambling?

Crash gambling is very fun and simple. These are games where you bet money at the start of the round and then decide when you want to cash out. The longer you wait the higher the potential reward, because the multiplier on your bet keeps increasing as time goes on. However, the game will stop at some point or crash, and if you haven’t cashed out then you lose your bet.

This is usually depicted using a plane that flies, or a dinosaur that keeps running. If the plane crashes or if a meteor falls on the dinosaur the round is over. This is inevitable but you never know when it will happen. The time the round will last is determined by RNG or algorithm the moment the round starts. The maximum possible multiplier depends on the game you have chosen but it can be between 10,000x and even a million. In a way, this isn’t relevant, because no one will ever gamble that much and wait for so long.

Crash games were inspired by the crypto market. The idea is that once you buy crypto you either wait for its value to increase and cash out, or you wait for too long the the value crashes. Cashing out early, or failing to cash out in time will always feel disappointing, but at the end of the day, that’s just one of the ways how people make money on crypto trading.

Probability in Crash Games

Source: Pix4free

Many new players look at the crash games and think that the chance of the multiplier reaching 2x is nearly 50%. This is because these games have high RTP between 95% and 99%. However, this doesn’t mean that you have almost 50% of getting to the 2x multiplier. Experienced players use the guaranteed low multipliers. So they bet big and cash out early at 1.3x or 1.5x multiplier. The chance of a crash happening here is lower but it’s still possible though.

Still, it only shows you why 50% for a 2x multiplier is unrealistic, operators would lose a lot of money if this was the case. So strategies that would work in Roulette, where you double your bet on a loss won’t be as effective here.

Calculating the Odds

Casino games can teach us many things. You can learn better math, learn even a new language, or how to manage your bankroll. Crash games, force us to apply our knowledge of statistics. They do this by giving us data from hundreds of previous rounds.

Almost every crash game gives you the option to view game history. Here you can see how high or low the multipliers have gone in the previous rounds. You want to use that data to find out what is the highest multiplier that occurred in 50% of previous games. The bigger the data sample you use the better. You can then use that number as your auto-cashout benchmark.

Alternatively, you can bet big and always make sure you cash out on a multiplier that is lower than the one that occurs in 50% of the rounds. That being said, it’s understandable if you don’t find this fun. After all, you are doing more math than actually playing the game.

Forget About the Probability

If you want to play for fun just bet the lowest amount possible. Then don’t cash out until the multiplier reaches a higher number. Many players rely on the theory of relativity when they bet. They view the round history and wait for a series of rounds that have low outcomes. Then they bet and wait. The idea is that every defeat brings you closer to victory. So, if the result was low several times in a row, chances are it will get bigger in the next few rounds, to balance out the inconsistency.

Conclusion

In essence, this is how crash mini-games work and how people play them. There are other mini-games available that don’t use the same mechanics but are just as engaging. You can try a game of chicken where you get to decide what are the odds of winning and find your sweet spot in terms of risk-reward ratio. You can also try mini-roulette or mini-blackjack, which are similar to original games but a lot faster, and offer better odds for players