A win does not necessarily indicate that a team played at a high level. Predictions are made based on recent form, strength of opponent and playing conditions.
Reading Football Statistics Beyond the Score
A five match winning streak may appear impressive but if all of the five opponents were poor then it may not be. A winning streak is not the only relevant factor. People may also look at odds before a match and how those odds change during the course of the match. In sports forecasting (Estonian: spordiennustus) changes due to a red card, a goal, or change in intensity can be reflected in live odds. Having live markets available for many different sports and matches available for comparison is also beneficial.
An example may be given using the current situation of the Estonian national football team in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League. Estonia played Iceland in their first match of the competition in September and the result was 1-1. This single game does not provide much information about the defensive and offensive quality of Estonia. Further information about the potential for Estonia can be gained by studying their results against the other clubs in the same league.
Formula 1: Beyond Qualifying Times
A quick qualifying lap does not always translate into a good race finish. The VivatBet Formula 1 page has markets for every Grand Prix, including qualifying, race winner, and podium finishes. In some Formula 1 betting markets (Estonian: Vormel 1 panustamine), qualifying speed is important, but in others, tire wear and pit-stop strategy are more influential. All the choices are combined on each event page.
What Changed in 2026
The 2026 Formula 1 cars are very different to 2025 due to new power units and active aerodynamics. This means a good result at a particular event in 2025 is less indication of a driver’s prospects in the 2025 season. More that now becomes important is the performance of the car during practice, the gap between drivers in qualifying and the wear rate of the tyres used.
Comparing Opponents Before Making Predictions
Three wins from five games may appear impressive at first but this has to be qualified according to the strength of the opposition. Winning against bottom side teams is not the same as taking points from top teams. The results may be the same but the level of competition behind the results varies.
The league position is only part of the story. There is more information in the numbers if you dig a little deeper.
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xG – Quality of scoring opportunities
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Shots on goal – Attempts that are aimed at the goalkeeper
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Home / Away form – Performance at home or away
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Player fitness – Injuries or suspensions impacting the squad
Consider the two teams both with three wins from five games. One team has consistently created a high number of quality scoring opportunities for almost every game they have played. The other team has mostly barely avoided narrow losses while providing their opponents with a large number of scoring opportunities. Both teams may appear to have similar recent form however the level of play behind these results varies. The teams they have played against and the defensive quality of those teams also plays a part.
Converting Odds Into Probabilities
Forecasts are built on statistics, and probabilities are the expression of the expected chance of an event occurring. Decimal betting odds provide an implied probability, calculated by dividing one by the quoted price.
|
Decimal odds |
Implied probability |
Winning return on €10 |
|
1.50 |
66.7% |
€15 |
|
2.00 |
50.0% |
€20 |
|
2.50 |
40.0% |
€25 |
|
4.00 |
25.0% |
€40 |
These figures illustrate the calculation rather than current market prices. The stake is included in returns, and the odds are the probabilities without the bookmaker’s margin adjustments.
At odds of 2.50, a €10 stake pays out €25. That price puts the implied chance of winning at 40%, though the statistics might suggest otherwise.
Testing Predictions Against Results
By keeping a record of forecasts it is possible to get a better idea of the accuracy of a forecast. It is also possible to avoid a small number of good or bad results having an overbearing effect on future forecasting.
Steps to take in preparing forecasts:
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Use data from official competitions
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Compare players to players of comparable ability
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Consider fixture, absence and competition data
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Produce probabilities outside the betting market
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Keep a record of forecasts and results over time
For example if a forecaster believes that 60% of their forecasts will be accurate then after a number of hundred forecasts the accuracy level is found to be approximately 50%. This difference could indicate that the initial probabilities were overly optimistic.
Where Statistical Analysis Falls Short
A football team can have plenty of time with the car, plenty of opportunities throughout the event, yet still lose due to one error at the back. In Formula 1 a poor pit strategy can ruin an otherwise successful weekend. Neither is readily predictable based on past results.
Significant changes to a racing team or change of team manager can pose a bigger problem. In these instances past form might not be indicative of current form. Even high levels of past performance cannot eliminate the element of surprise. This can make profitable betting more difficult due to the bookmaker’s margin.